Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Summer Box-Office Results

At the start of the summer I made my predictions for what would be the top 10 money-makers for the season. Now that summer has come to a close, it's time to look at the results. While these won't be the final numbers for some of the films, the overall standings should stay about the same. (The #10 spot could very well be overtaken eventually.)

First, my predictions from the end of April:

Toy Story 3 – 425
Iron Man 2 – 375
Twilight: Eclipse – 300
Shrek Forever After – 250
Inception – 175
Salt – 160
The Last Airbender – 155
The A-Team – 150
Prince of Persia – 145
Robin Hood – 130

Top 10 as of Sep. 7:
Toy Story 3 - 408
Iron Man 2 - 312
Twilight: Eclipse - 298
Inception - 278
Despicable Me - 241
Shrek Forever After - 238
The Karate Kid - 176
Grown Ups - 160
The Last Airbender - 131
Salt - 115

So, as of now, I guessed 7 out of the 10. Not bad for a first-time try. The biggest surprise for me was the success of The Karate Kid. I really didn't expect it to come near 100 million, much less 176. I'm not sure why I thought Robin Hood would perform well. It didn't really cater to the typical summer audience, instead aiming a little older. I'm more surprised that The A-Team didn't perform better. I guess most teenagers aren't that familiar with the TV show, so they didn't care about it (?). Despicable Me really should have been on my prediction list. It's animated, made for all ages, and has many celebrity voices. Hindsight is 20/20.

As far as accuracy goes, it's pretty hit or miss. Going into the summer, the biggest question mark on my list was Inception. I really wasn't sure how mainstream it would turn out, so I took a wild guess for its total. Iron Man 2, while doing well, didn't follow the usual pattern of sequels. Usually when a blockbuster is considered solid, the sequel earns more. Iron Man 2 essentially equaled the first film's gross. On the plus side, I'm right on the money for a few films. Who knew I would be such an expert at guessing the spending habits of the Twilight fanbase? Weird.

Overall, this was an interesting experiment and one that I may do again next year.

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